Thoughts on the Canadian Division? Bold Predictions?

I figure Toronto is the only team clearly set for a playoff spot.

I think Ottawa isn’t good enough yet and Vancouver backslid in the off-season.

So I think Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg and Montreal will fight for three playoff spots. I really hope it comes down to goaltending because then the greasers would miss the playoffs yet again.

Also not sure that Toronto took a step forward except in backup goalie. Brodie is competent but we have seen his inconsistency. Thornton and Simmonds in but Marleau out plus Spezza is a year older. I think their only true upgrade is a potential great season from Nick Robertson.

Flames win the division. Nikita Nesterov, having matured as a player in Russia since his last stint, is a revelation in a good way to the fans and makes the Flames defense corps rock solid.

Bold prediction? Monahan pots 40 goals in a 56 game season. Score 0 in the playoffs.

I just think when they are playing teams three times in a row, there may be lots of fights in the Canadian division.

If the flames are winning and the oilers are losing, who cares the matchups

I am going to guess it ends up looking like this:

Toronto
Calgary
Edmonton
Montreal
Winnipeg
Vancouver
Ottawa

I don't think Toronto is the obvious favourite. I do not like their team building.

FORWARD

Simmons looks done to me. His style of play wasn't sustainable for his body (185lbs) and he'll be little more than a 4th line semi-goon/healthy scratch. Spezza has little value any more and is just a poor man's Joe Thornton now. Joe Thornton is almost a poor man's Joe Thornton himself. He needs protected ice time and a specific type of linemates to continue to be effective.

Marner and Nylander are good players but they are not elite. That's the Toronto media hype machine. Both are one-dimensional and when they aren't offering that they have little to contribute. They are the Leafs' Gaudreau.

Tavares is excellent and Matthews is elite. Hyman and Mikheyev are solid pieces who play their roles well.

Vesey is one-dimensional and not very good at that dimension unless he gets absolutely prime, heavily-protected ice time

Kerfoot is average at best. Robertson probably isn't ready and needs prime, protected ice-time as well.

Engvall, Malgin, Agostino, Petan, Brooks is poor forward depth.

They lack clear shutdown defense forwards and as a team style their forwards do not contribute enough defensively.

DEFENSE

The defense isn't fixed unless Sandin, Lehtonen and Lilljegren are ready to step up and be effective players.

Reilly is very good and Muzzin is a warrior but may be at the beginning of a downside.

Brodie isn't a #2 any more. He's a #3-4 (like Muzzin). But a good 3-4.

Bogosian is a #6-7. Tampa made him look like a good #5 but that's Tampa. He was a #6-7 in Buffalo and that is what he is.

Justin Holl is an average #6-7 at best despite what all those Leaf fans who wanted to trade him and a 5th rounder for Bennett will tell you.

Lehtonen is a complete wildcard. Could be anything from a #2 to a healthy scratch. He has 5 games of North American-sized ice experience. The 2010-11 WJC-U17

Dermott is also abit of a wildcard though I think he may have some good upside. I doubt he gets much opportunity this year though.

GOAL

Their goaltending is good. Andersen needs to be the really good version of himself behind a weak defensive team, not last year's Andersen. In Campbell and Dell they have solid backup goaltending.

INTANGIBLES

To the point that they copied Tampa by improving team toughness they did it with marginal players on the downside (Simmons & Bogosian) rather than effective role players (Coleman, Goodrow, Maroon) and I don't believe they will benefit like Tampa did

Tavares is so invested in a Leafs' championship. Which sounds like a good thing but I think he's too tied to it. Since the end of the 70s Canadiens' dynasty I can only find 3 players who played a significant role on hometown championships, Messier, Vernon and Rafalski. It is usually hometown boys in specific roles such as Maroon or Abdelkader. I think that is a thing. The Leaf Pajamas curse I am calling it.

They have no salary cap flexibility. They have to make a major move to get some. One that they likely lose in the short-term

They have a lose-in-the-first-round-of-the-playoffs (I am counting this past season) karma that is becoming as much as mental thing as 1967 is. Thornton, Bogosian, Simmons and Lehtonen don't change that vibe.

OVERALL

I am not saying they are a bad team. I just don't buy into the clear favourite roll so many are giving them. I figure they should be good for a playoff spot this year. Probably third. I do not like the team construction.