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Post by foreverflamefan on Jul 6, 2020 23:08:12 GMT
I didn't see a thread on this, but was just wondering if we were still abiding by the NHL draft lottery %'s for the bottom 8 teams in HTN? Problem here is there were 7 teams with their own %'s and then all of those unknown teams. One unknown team won the draft lottery, but they were not in the top 7 picks. How did you guys want to go on about this? Is this how the lottery would go? Assuming we skip 1st OA to an unknown team, LA's spot, OTT/SJ's spot, and SEA's spot would get the top 3 picks in HTN: | Place | NHL Team | Place | HTN Team | Result | | 31 | DET | 24 | CGY (VAN) | 1) CHI (#2 LA in real lottery - since someone outside top 7 was picked, LA was next in line) | | 30 | OTT | 23 | MON | 2) SEA (#3 SJ/OTT in real lottery) | | 29 | SJ (OTT) | 22 | SEA | 3) CGY (VAN owns this pick) | | 28 | LA | 21 | CHI | 4) MON | | 27 | ANA | 20 | TOR | 5) TOR | | 26 | NJ | 19 | DAL | 6) DAL | | 25 | BUF | 18 | OTT | 7) OTT | | 24 | - | 17 | COL | 8) COL (SJS owns this pick) |
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tiger
Junior
Posts: 292
Classic: Washington
Dynasty: WAM
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Post by tiger on Jul 7, 2020 15:04:16 GMT
It does really depend on what happens with the first overall pick
In my view, if the team that ends up in 8th place actually wins the lottery than Colorado's pick would be first. If any other team wins than it is how you have written it up
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Post by furnaceface on Jul 8, 2020 7:00:18 GMT
Sorry, forgot to get this up earlier. The mods decided, with Cory in agreement, we’re only doing the last 7 teams in the lottery. Colorado’s pick is 8th.
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Post by cyclone on Jul 9, 2020 22:14:33 GMT
I agree with this method
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Post by drcor on Jul 9, 2020 23:16:00 GMT
To be honest, I had thought the mods were going to provide the caveat that if Montreal won the pick, that would be the only chance I could, as owner of the 8th pick, win the 1st OA pick. It would be total odds of 3%, which is pretty low.
It's not a big deal if the mods don't agree, I just thought I would add my two bits.
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Post by cyclone on Jul 11, 2020 2:30:21 GMT
To be honest, I had thought the mods were going to provide the caveat that if Montreal won the pick, that would be the only chance I could, as owner of the 8th pick, win the 1st OA pick. It would be total odds of 3%, which is pretty low. It's not a big deal if the mods don't agree, I just thought I would add my two bits. 6.25% I think A 1 in 16 chance. First they need to lose the first round, then they need to be the one team in eight to get selected. In reality, odds are even higher because their chance of winning the play in are not great. |
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Post by drcor on Jul 11, 2020 18:02:44 GMT
The way I calculated it was:
A 24.5% chance that a play-in team would get it. Then a 12.5% chance that they would win the second lotto. But I hadn't thought of the 1/16 chance, which would make even lower total odds.
A 24.5% chance x 6.25% = 1.5% chance.
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Post by cyclone on Jul 11, 2020 21:28:23 GMT
What do you think the odds are that Montreal loses the play in? They are lucky to be there.
But regardless of the odds, the spirit of the rule was to award the prospect picks based upon the teams that were not given a chance at Lord Stanley’s Cup. Normally that would be 15 real life teams missing the playoffs, 8 in HTN since we have only 24 teams va NHL having 31.
No one anticipated the pandemic or the fall out. As it is, 7 real life NHL team have no chance at the cup so I think it makes sense to limit the number of teams eligible for top pick to our lowest seven.
I am willing to listen to the majority on this, but my opinion is that Montreal is at #8 and we already have determined the top seven.
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Post by furnaceface on Jul 11, 2020 23:31:46 GMT
Agree with Cyclone. It follows the intent and spirit from other regular years.
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Post by foreverflamefan on Jul 12, 2020 2:59:23 GMT
Personally, you should only be given lottery odds to the teams that had no chance at playoffs at all. So, the bottom 7 teams in points % are the ones that get to go through the HTN lottery.
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Post by drcor on Jul 12, 2020 3:50:06 GMT
Cyclone, that's a rationale I hadn't considered. I think that's well argued and makes a lot of sense. Given that, I am good with 8th.
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dammage79
Junior
Posts: 325
Classic: Calgary
Dynasty: Devils
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Post by dammage79 on Jul 12, 2020 19:43:23 GMT
That list post confuses me. It doesnt read properly on a phone.
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Post by cyclone on Jul 12, 2020 21:57:23 GMT
That list post confuses me. It doesnt read properly on a phone. Try turning your phone landscape |
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Post by cyclone on Aug 25, 2020 23:50:42 GMT
I forget, perhaps I need a reminder. The draft lottery, does it affect all rounds or just the first round? ie is Chicago’s pick first in each round, or just the first round?
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Post by drcor on Aug 26, 2020 3:06:41 GMT
Just the first
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